16 May 2019 10:27
Bitcoin price struggled to climb above the $3,990 and $4,000 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The price declined again and retested the key $3,940 support area and the 100 hourly SMA. There is a short term bearish trend line in place with resistance at $3,980 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). Buyers might have the last chance for an upside break above the $4,000 resistance. Bitcoin price is holding an important support near $3,940 against the US Dollar.
BTC is likely to make the next move either above $4,000 or below the $3,900 support level. Yesterday, we saw the start of a downside correction in bitcoin price from the $4,041 high against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair corrected lower and traded below the $4,020 and $4,000 support levels. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $3,846 low to $4,041 high. More importantly, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $3,846 low to $4,041 high acted as a strong support. The price was recently rejected near the $3,980 level. It seems like buyers might have the last chance for an upside break above the $4,000 resistance. There is also a short term bearish trend line in place with resistance at $3,980 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Therefore, buyers need to clear the trend line and the $4,000 resistance for a fresh upward move. Looking at the chart, bitcoin price is clearly approaching the next break either above the $4,000 resistance or below the $3,940 support. As long as the price is above the 100 hourly SMA, there are chances of an upside break above $4,000. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD recently tested the 40 level and it is currently moving towards 50. Bitcoin appears on track to snap its six-month losing streak and close February in the green for the fifth consecutive year. BTC may remain better bid in March, as the weekly chart is signaling bearish exhaustion. The short-term outlook remains bullish, with BTC holding above $3,714 and a bounce from 10-candle MA on the three-day chart could yield a move toward $4,000. On the downside, a UTC close below $3,714 would validate a bearish outside reversal candle seen in the three-day chart and open the doors to levels below $3,400. The outlook as per the monthly chart remains bearish, as moving average studies are still trending south. The bearish setup would be invalidated if and when prices clear the resistance of the trendline falling from December 2017 highs, currently at $5,000. Bitcoin (BTC) looks set to end its record six-month losing streak with modest gains in February. The crypto market leader is currently trading at $3,800 on Bitstamp, representing a 10 percent gain on the monthly opening price of $3,434, according to CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index. Had BTC remained bid at highs above $4,100 seen over the weekend, the monthly gain would have been close to 20 percent. Prices dropped 9, 6, 4.4, 37, 7 and 7.5 percent, respectively, in the previous six months, the longest stretch of monthly losses on record. Notably, November's double-digit drop did the most damage, with prices tumbling below the long-held support of $6,000 and dashing hopes of a long-term bullish reversal from that level. More importantly, as we enter the final month of the first quarter, signs of bearish exhaustion have emerged on longer duration charts, as discussed earlier this week. The trend, however, is still to the downside, as indicated by the downward sloping 5- and 10-month moving averages (MAs). A break above the descending trendline connecting the December 2017 and November 2018 highs is needed to invalidate the bearish view. Further, the cryptocurrency created an inverted bullish hammer last week, validating the seller exhaustion signaled by the long-term MA crossover. BTC created a bearish outside reversal (engulfing) candle yesterday, countering the bullish outside reversal created in three days to Feb. 8. A bullish-to-bearish reversal, however, would be confirmed only if BTC finds acceptance under $3,714. Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View Will BTC reach new heights, or is its short-term success to be eclipsed by another bearish trend? Bitcoin price chart from botje11 According to user botje11, Bitcoin seems to be going through ABC correction. "In a short term, we want to see something like the chart on the left. Bitcoin price chart from CryptoManiac101 At the moment, there's no clear BTC/USD trade set up. Bitcoin price chart from TradingShot Prepare to buy BTC at $4,100 higher high and sell on $4,190 when Ascending Triangle Resistance forms. Bitcoin price chart from MrRenev "After a dead cat bounce and the usual victims that regulators try so hard to protect - no matter how much that hurts the legit traders like me - and that lose no matter how many rules aka wheelchair training wheels are set in place to help them out, will ONCE AGAIN call the bottom, buy the dip etc - which should last let's say 3-5 days, the price will then fall more than 1/3 in a matter of days. After breaking resistance, Bitcoin is through the uptrend. $4,050 will be a new BTC price threshold and an entry point for traders. BTC/USD price chart on TradingView The short-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin has been strengthened. The gains that had BTC hit a three-week high around $4,040 are partly backed by the high trading volumes. BTC/USD cleared the resistance at $4,000 during the weekend trading marking the second biggest move in the same week. The short-term bullish outlook for the crypto has been strengthened. However, according to CoinDesk latest analysis, the four-week bull rally is currently facing former support that turned into resistance on several occasions in 2018. The gains that had BTC hit a three-week high around $4,040 are partly backed by the high trading volumes that hit $10 billion last week. According to the confluence detector tool, the initial resistance lies at $3,978.44 and is host to several indicators include previous high 1-hour, previous high 15-minutes, Bollinger Band 15-minutes upper, 61.8% Fib retracement level daily chart, 10 SMA 1-hour, 10 SMA 4-hour, Bollinger Band 1-hour middle, 100 SMA 15-minutes, 5 SMA 4-hour, 50 SMA 1-hour. While a sustained correction above $4,000 will be a step in the right direction the bulls will have to clear the resistance at $4,019.60. A level that is highlighted by a confluence of the following indicators the 161.8% Fibo weekly charts, the Bollinger Band 1-hour upper curve, and the pivot point 1-week R2. On the flipside, initial support has been established at $3,937.28 with a confluence of indicators that includes the previous week high, 100 SMA 1-hour, previous low 1-day, pivot point 21-day S1. Second support has been established at $3,896.12 highlighted by the following indicators pivot point 1-week S3, 10-SMA daily chart, the 50 SMA 4-hour chart, and 200 SMA 1-hour chart. BTC/USD Medium-term Trend: Bullish Resistance Levels: $6,800, $6,900, $7,000 Support levels: $3,800, $3,700, $3, 600 Yesterday, March 19, the price of Bitcoin was in a bullish trend. Yesterday, the bulls tested the $4,000 resistance level and the BTC price fell to the support of the 26-day EMA. On the upside, if the 26-day EMA is holding the bulls will resume another bullish trend to retest the resistance level. On the other hand, if price continues its fall and breaks the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA, the crypto's price will resume a downward trend. Presently, the BTC price is trading at $3, 978.41 as at the time of writing. The BTC price is above the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA which indicates that price is in the bullish trend zone. BTC/USD Short-term Trend: Bearish On the 1-hour chart, the BTC price is in a bearish trend. Nevertheless, the crypto's price is below the EMAs which indicate that price is likely to fall. And if the bulls fail to break above the EMAs, the BTC price will continue its fall. Today, the crypto's price is below the EMAs indicating that price is in the bearish trend zone.