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29 October 2019 16:40

Electoral Calculus also predicts that the probability of a Conservative majority is 50%, suggesting it is highly likely.

conservative party

The latest figures sampled 9,176 people between October 1 and October 15 - and it predicts not one, but two changes in the county. Flavible Politics, making projections based on a ComRes poll from September 12 have her winning the East Devon seat in their latest election predictions. Votes CON 29,306 48.5% 53.4% MIN 21,270 35.2% 0.0% LAB 6,857 11.4% 10.8% LIB 1,468 2.4% 18.0% UKIP 1,203 2.0% 0.4% OTH 278 0.5% 2.4% Brexit 0 0.0% 12.5% Green 0 0.0% 2.4% CON Majority 8,036 13.3% Pred Maj 35.4% winning CON 95% MIN 0% LAB 1% LIB 4% UKIP 0% OTH 0% Brexit 1% Green 0% Votes LAB 27,283 53.3% 29.9% CON 20,476 40.0% 32.6% UKIP 1,364 2.7% 0.5% LIB 1,244 2.4% 16.4% Green 604 1.2% 6.4% OTH 237 0.5% 2.7% Brexit 0 0.0% 11.5% LAB Majority 6,807 13.3% Pred Maj 2.7% Prediction for South West Devon Overall it is currently predicted that the Conservatives would win the General Election with 354 seats to Labour's 195. Electoral Calculus also predicts that the probability of a Conservative majority is 50%, suggesting it is highly likely. Here's the predictions according to Electoral Calculus.

conservative party

Prediction: Lib Dem gain from Conservatives Votes CON 22,120 43.2% 33.0% LIB 21,808 42.6% 43.7% LAB 7,298 14.2% 8.3% Brexit 0 0.0% 10.2% Green 0 0.0% 2.8% UKIP 0 0.0% 0.2% OTH 0 0.0% 1.8% CON Majority 312 0.6% Pred Maj 10.7% winning CON 31% LIB 68% LAB 1% Brexit 1% Green 0% UKIP 0% OTH 0% It asked 2,066 British adults which party they would vote for if a general election were held the next day to which 32 per cent responded Conservative, 22 per cent Labour, 19 per cent Liberal Democrat, and 8 per cent Green.