22 December 2019 18:31
The Baltimore Ravens are 9.5-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns in Sunday's AFC North showdown at FirstEnergy Stadium. Baltimore (12-2) has the inside track for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a victory on Sunday. The Ravens have been obliterating everyone in their path during a 10-game winning streak. Lamar Jackson threw two of his six interceptions this season in the 40-25 home loss to Cleveland. It's been an erratic season for Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense.
The team has regressed under head coach Freddie Kitchens as Cleveland is 21st in the NFL averaging just 21.2 points per game. ESPN's FPI gives Baltimore a 78.5% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday's AFC North matchup between the Ravens and Browns. This line opened at Ravens -7 and has been bet up to Ravens -9.5 with the majority of the bets and money coming in on Baltimore. Ravens are 12-2 SU and 8-6 ATS this season Browns are 6-8 SU and 5-8-1 ATS this season Over is 8-6 in Ravens games this season Over is 7-7 in Browns games this season Their loss to the Browns way back at the beginning of the season is the last time the Ravens suffered a setback.
Stuckey highlights his favorite NFL picks for Week 16 below. Let's run through how he's betting Ravens-Browns and Jaguars-Falcons. I'll actually be at this game — I make the trip to Cleveland each year to see my Ravens. Baltimore Ravens -9.5 @ Cleveland Browns -.25 Unit Crazy trend popping up the past two seasons in the NFL. Road favorites of 10 or more are 13-1 ATS since the beginning of 2018, beating the spread on average by almost 11 points per game. Before last year, fading big road favorites was easy money. While football fundamentally changes every season to some degree, the rise in scoring has largely leveled off the past couple of seasons and teams have returned to running the ball around 45% of the time, largely in-line with the style of the game 10 years ago. Unlike most 10-point road favorites, I could make the argument that the Ravens will be laser-focused on the task of hand. The principal culprit of the Ravens week 4 defeat at home to the Browns: poor rush defense. The Browns repeatedly lined up in two tight-end sets – 12 and 22 formations – and brutalized the Ravens struggling defense to the tune of 40 points and over 200 rushing yards. The Ravens defense has battled back incredibly strongly since their early-season troubles. For several weeks, the Ravens were last in the league in Yards Per Play Allowed, giving up 7 yards a pop. 3-Team Teaser 6.5-Point Teaser (+150): Baltimore Ravens -3 @ Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts -1 vs. The Ravens have covered a 6-point teaser in their last 10 ball games. While first-time starters in the NFL this season are 9-2 ATS, most of that has been because of mispricing. Although the Saints shut them down last week on MNF, the Colts have had a great running game all season whether or not Marlon Mack their best RB plays. It's free money for you to bet when you sign up and make a deposit.